Government size, economic freedom, and homicide rates: A cross-National analysis of 74 countries

The tension between free-market systems and the role of the state remains a central theme in political economy. This study extends the discussion by examining the complex relationship between government size, economic freedom, and homicide rates. Using fixed-effects analysis across 74 countries from 2000 to 2021, we find that both a larger government and higher levels of economic freedom are independently associated with lower homicide rates. Moreover, economic freedom moderates the relationship between government size and homicide rates; the most pronounced decreases in homicide rates occur where a large government and high economic freedom coexist. Sub-group analyses reveal substantial heterogeneity, with significant interactive effects observed in the upper-middle-income group. These results provide empirical support for the Hayekian welfare state framework while suggesting that its effectiveness remains depending on countries’ developmental levels.