A multivariate framework to quantify propagation characteristics from soil drought to socio-ecological productivity

China spans strong climatic and ecological gradients, from arid northern regions to humid southern ecosystems, making it highly vulnerable to soil moisture deficits and associated vegetation productivity loss. As climate extremes intensify, the processes linking soil moisture deficits to vegetation loss and their socio-ecological impacts remain insufficiently understood. This study proposes a multivariate framework integrating event-based matching and copula-based probability modeling to analyze dynamics in drought events that propagate from soil drought to socio-ecological loss under historical conditions and future climate and socioeconomic scenarios across China. Using reanalysis soil moisture, model-based GPP, and climate–hydrology simulations across multiple RCP–SSP pathways, we quantify propagation characteristics (duration, severity, response lag, recovery length), assess vegetation resistance, and evaluate exposure of major crops, GDP, and population. The proportion of vegetation-loss events triggered by soil drought increases from 33 % historically to 57 % in future with intensifying severity. Propagating and non-propagating events exhibit distinct atmospheric controls, emphasizing land–atmosphere coupling. Northern China faces shorter but more intense droughts, while southern China experiences longer droughts and rising vegetation resistance, with resistant areas expanding from 19–24 % (2030–2060) to 22–29 % (2070–2099). Socio-economic exposure intensifies, with soybean (53.0 %) and maize (52.7 %) most affected, and GDP and population impacts clustering in North China and southeastern regions. These findings highlight growing ecohydrological risks and the need for targeted drought adaptation strategies. • A new multivariate framework quantifies soil-to-vegetation drought propagation. • High-emission scenarios intensify soil-driven vegetation productivity losses. • Maize and soybean are more exposed to drought than rice. • Population and economic exposure to drought risk rises under future climates.