Simulation and prediction of lake water storage response to climate change in a high-cold arid region: The case of typical lakes on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains

Study AreaThis study focuses on typical lakes on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, at the northwest edge of the Tibet Plateau. This high-cold arid region's hydrological processes are highly sensitive to climate change, crucial for regional ecological stability.Research FocusWe reconstructed historical (1990–2020) and predicted future (2021–2030) lake water storage changes. Landsat imagery and satellite altimetry data were used to analyze lake number, area, and water level, estimating storage. GRACE satellite data verified observations. Monthly analysis identified abrupt shifts and seasonal patterns. A Back Propagation (BP) neural network predicted future storage, validated against remote sensing data.New Hydrological Insights for the RegionAnalysis revealed significant lake expansion: number of lakes increased by 162.79%, total area by 77.19%. Water levels generally rose, leading to substantial storage increases, especially after 2003. Monthly findings showed abrupt storage increases for Lakes Aqqikkol (April 2003) and Ayagkumu (April 2009). Intra-annual changes exhibited seasonal patterns, with main growth in the warm season (May–September). BP network predicts continued storage increase for Lakes Aqqikkol and Aksaichin (2021–2030), with ±10% forecast deviation, confirming model robustness. These insights enhance understanding of high-cold arid hydrological processes, aiding water resource vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategies.