Climate change has intensified drought in the Middle East over the last century

Study region The study region is the Middle East, one of the most drought-vulnerable regions globally, experiencing ongoing climate variability and change. Study focus This study investigates spatiotemporal meteorological drought dynamics using the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and trend analysis based on region-specific breakpoints over 1901–2022. Changes in drought frequency, intensity, duration, return periods, spatial extent, and seasonality were assessed before and after the breakpoints. New hydrological insights for the region A regional breakpoint around 1976 indicates a shift toward more frequent, prolonged, and intense drought conditions across the Middle East, with timing varying from 1965 in Türkiye to 1993 in Egypt and the Levant. Post-breakpoint results show strong intensification in southern Egypt and southern Saudi Arabia, while localized reductions occur in parts of Yemen. Since 2000, drought-affected areas have expanded, with summer drought frequency increasing up to 60% in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the UAE, and Oman. Maximum drought duration increased by 87.5% in Egypt, 78.6% in the Levant, 56.3% in the Arabian Peninsula, and 46.7% in Iran, while maximum drought intensity increased by 209% in the Arabian Peninsula, 155.6% in Iran, and 35.8% in the Levant. Türkiye shows weaker changes due to topographic controls. Overall, increasing potential evapotranspiration and changing precipitation regimes have driven a regional shift toward more persistent and severe drought conditions, highlighting the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.