A multi-dimensional approach to thermal resilience for UK schools: quantifying cognitive, comfort and heat strain impacts due to overheating

Overheating in school buildings poses a significant threat to pupils’ learning attainment, comfort and health, a risk expected to intensify with climate change. This study conducted a regional, building stock-scale assessment for Hampshire, United Kingdom, encompassing over 500 maintained schools and nearly 9,000 classrooms. Representative schools (10 buildings, 60 classrooms) were selected from a high-resolution inventory and monitored from 2022 to 2023. Six heatwave events were recorded during monitoring, including record temperatures in 2022. Overheating risk was quantified in the buildings using three metrics: cognitive performance, adaptive comfort based on BB101 guidelines and heat strain based on Gagge’s model. The risk criteria were then incorporated into an interpretable data-driven workflow using classroom data, building stock inventory data, and climate projections. This method is used to estimate classroom-level overheating risk and thermal resilience across Hampshire schools. A medium-to-high impact on cognitive function is projected in 66% of classrooms at present, rising to 92% (the large majority of classrooms without air conditioning) by 2050 without targeted interventions. By 2050, heat strain is expected to increase from 6% to 10% of classrooms and BB101 thermal comfort limits exceedance from 50% to 76%. Overheating risk is highest in lightweight, single-sided naturally ventilated classrooms like SCOLA with high glazing ratios and limited solar control. The transferable workflow developed can bridge strategic school-estate planning for local authorities and national overheating risk mitigation and adaptation policy.