A probabilistic assessment of hail hazard impact on the life cycle of BMPV systems

Building-mounted photovoltaics (BMPV) are increasingly used for sustainable and autonomous energy generation in the built environment. Furthermore, policies are pushing BMPVs as enablers of a decarbonized energy grid. Their lifecycle performance is a critical factor influenced by environmental hazards. Among others, hail hazard poses a significant threat. This study presents a probabilistic risk assessment of hail hazard for BMPV systems. By leveraging the performance-based engineering approach, it incorporates hail hazard, physical vulnerabilities, and consequence modelling. The analysis employs hazard models to predict hail frequency and specific intensity measures linked to damage scenarios for BMPV. Hail size is found to be well correlated with expected damage to the front glass, making it a viable intensity measure. Hail risk can reduce the operational lifespan of BMPV by up to 10.87 years and the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) by 46.52% when the glass thickness is 3.2 mm, and 2.22 years and 15.07% for a 4 mm thickness. Repair costs are significant compared to both the BMPV initial costs and the hail-related expected losses of whole buildings. This study underscores the importance of hail risk assessment for BMPV lifecycle analyses and of setting minimum impact resistance based on hail hazard levels.