Nutrient–warming synergy governs organophosphate esters bioavailability to dragonfly larvae

Accelerated global climate change has profoundly altered ecosystems and pollutant dynamics, severely hindering the accurate assessment of ecological risks associated with organophosphate esters (OPEs) due to the limitations of conventional monitoring approaches. To address these challenges, we developed an integrative “environment-biota-pollutant” framework, combining spatial statistics, machine learning, and structural equation modeling to elucidate OPE bioaccumulation in dragonfly larvae using a dataset comprising 6099 samples. The study reveals that dragonfly larvae exhibit pronounced spatial aggregation (Moran's I = 0.899–0.933) and exceptional bioconcentration capacity (mean log BAF = 3.63), surpassing traditional media. Through random forest modeling, nutrient salts (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen) were identified as the primary drivers of OPE bioaccumulation in larvae, accounting for 25.22% of the variance, over three times greater than the contribution from direct aqueous OPE exposure (7.67%). Further analysis using partial least squares structural equation modeling demonstrated that warming enhances nitrate bioavailability (β = 0.742), which subsequently promotes OPE accumulation in larvae (β = 0.409). This finding indicates that climate-driven nutrient cycling is a more significant driver than aqueous OPEs concentration. As climate change continues to influence nutrient cycling and bioavailability, this integrative approach offers a robust framework for understanding and addressing the ecological risks associated with OPEs in an evolving environment. • Systematic bioavailability study of OPEs in 6099 field-collected dragonfly larvae. • PLS-SEM, random forest and hot-spot mapping jointly probed OPE drivers in dragonfly larvae. • Strong evidence shows nutrients critically affect OPE bioavailability to dragonfly larvae. • Warmer waters under climate warming amplify nutrient-driven OPE bioavailability.