Achieving net-zero in Saudi Arabia's power sector by 2060 considering land and mineral availability

Saudi Arabia’s commitment to achieve net-zero (NZ) greenhouse gas emissions by 2060 requires emission reductions across key sectors, notably power generation, supported by effective and timely policies. We assess technological options, critical minerals, land requirements, and costs associated with transforming the Saudi power sector to NZ by 2060. The framework combines global critical mineral constraints scaled down to Saudi Arabia, land use considerations, and renewable resource limitations, with a capacity expansion model that co-optimizes generation (including battery storage and hydrogen) and transmission using an hourly temporal resolution. Achieving NZ emissions in the Saudi power sector by 2060 is feasible but projected to make the power system about four times costlier than today. Shortages of some critical materials (7 out of a total of 38 materials considered) may arise during the transition, with neodymium demand peaking at 10 times the estimated Saudi demand index, but these can be mitigated through planning, technology substitution, and targeted policy measures. Renewable resources and land availability are, by and large, not constraining. By 2060, the power sector is projected to occupy up to 3.6% of the Saudi land, with land limits approached in the northeastern region, highlighting the need for targeted land-use planning. • Technologies, minerals, land, and costs assessed for net-zero Saudi power system. • Demand nearly triples by 2060; onshore wind and PV lead capacity growth. • Allowing limited gross emissions by 2060 and CDR cut system costs by up to 16%. • Land is sufficient, but NE requires specific grid expansion and careful management. • 7 out of 38 materials face supply risk, manageable via low-intensity technologies.