Transitioning the European maritime industry to hydrogen: a system's perspective for policy making

The adoption of sustainable fuels can support the decarbonization of the maritime industry. This transition requires aligned changes across four interdependent value chains: fuel, shipbuilding, infrastructure, and operations. Even though literature has investigated the relationships among value chain processes, a comprehensive model is missing. This study follows Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory to discuss the effects of sustainable fuel adoption on the processes of the four maritime value chains, considering their interdependencies. A DEMATEL study was conducted involving 12 professionals from various areas of expertise to determine the intensity and directionality of relationships. The results outline dominant cause-and-effect relationships within the system and describe the many cascade effects of alternative fuels adoption. Specifically, the case of hydrogen is explored by considering its unique characteristics. Findings assist policy makers and industry stakeholders by clarifying the maritime system's dynamics, offering directions to accelerate the parallel development of the four maritime value chains, and informing the distribution of resources amongst them. Early in the transition, policy should focus on those identified as the system's drivers. Priorities include securing “green” fuel sources and managing fuel choice complexity. Local port authorities and infrastructure developers become crucial. Investments in storage and bunkering facilities at existing ports attract shipowners early adopters. Policy should promote targeted investments, coordinate the definition of standards, and direct the system's transition with an informed view of the maritime industry as a system-of-systems.