Evaluation of household electricity cost burden under Japan's green transformation

To achieve its 2030 emission targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 46% from 2013 levels, Japan has proposed a low-carbon power system centered on renewable energy, alongside a broader push toward electrification across final demands. Yet, how Japan's Green Transformation policies may reshape household embodied electricity cost burden remains unclear. To evaluate the impact on households, this study estimates embodied electricity expenditure under a 2030 scenario using input-output analysis and family expenditure data. We construct a joint supply-demand framework and apply Shapley decomposition to quantify the roles of technology, price, scale, and structural effects. Results show that despite cleaner and cheaper electricity, upstream electrification drives up household embodied electricity expenditure, contributing 47.2% to the increase. Food, Goods and Necessities, and Transport dominate the growth in embodied electricity expenditure, while renewables account for 37.3% of embodied electricity expenditure. Income-based analysis suggests that lower-income households may face greater pressure, as their expenditure structures are less flexible and more concentrated in essential consumption. These findings suggest that a just green transition requires attention not only to decarbonization outcomes, but also to how electricity-related costs are transmitted through household consumption, especially in essential spending.