Militia, Boko Haram, banditry, and infrastructure bursts: Impacts on Nigerian energy systems

Intentional attacks on energy infrastructure by non-state actors are increasing across fragile regions, creating severe economic, environmental, and security risks. This study assesses how militancy, insurgency, and armed banditry undermine Nigeria’s energy systems through deliberate disruptions to oil, gas, and power infrastructure. Drawing on two datasets (2009-2025), we examine the spatio-temporal evolution of attacks and their associated costs. The South-South (Niger Delta) remains the epicentre oil sabotage, driven resource-grievances, with peak revenue losses of $8.62 trillion (2009-2012) and sustained environmental damage. Since 2021, tactics have shifted, with over 40 attacks targeting transmission lines in the North-East and North-Central, largely linked to Boko Haram and armed bandits. Case studies of the 2016 Shell Forcados terminal bombing and the 2024 Shiroro transmission line attack show reliance on backup generators increased electricity costs 3.2-6.0 times and significantly raised CO2e emissions in high-demand areas. These disruptions threaten critical domestic projects and weaken Nigeria’s regional energy role. We recommend investment in decentralised systems, community engagement in oil regions, and policies supporting industrial decarbonisation through clean hydrogen to strengthen resilience and advance climate goals. The study provides new evidence on the of conflict, energy infrastructure, and environmental security in petro-states.