Climate action strategies for sustainable rainfed agricultural systems in Southern India: Economic and crop modeling insights

• A Crop Viability Index was developed using CMIP6 climate projections with the FAO CROPWAT model. • About 44% of rainfed districts in southern India are projected to face future drought risk. • Combined early sowing, drought-tolerant crops, and farm ponds maximize drought resilience. • Economic analysis confirms zone-specific strategies yield positive returns under climate change. Disrupted rainfall patterns and rising temperature anomalies pose significant threats to global food security, particularly by increasing the risk of crop failures and reducing agricultural productivity in rainfed systems. This study evaluates the future feasibility of practicing rainfed cropping in peninsular India by introducing a novel crop viability index, derived from the latest CMIP6 climate projections and the CROPWAT model. Based on this index, the regions are grouped into four distinct zones from safe to high-risk zone of rainfed cultivation. The study further examines the impact of seven field-scale climate adaptation strategies on sustaining crop cultivation in rainfed areas and assesses their economic viability for each zone. The study findings reveal that 44% of rainfed districts in peninsular India are projected to face drought risk in the near future. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates that a combination of early sowing, drought-tolerant crop varieties, and farm pond construction would be the most effective climate response strategy. The proposed assessment framework provides region specific recommendations and serves as a strategic roadmap for enhancing the sustainability and resilience of rainfed farming systems.