Navigating Portugal’s F-gas emissions mitigation pathways

Fluorinated gases (F-gas) are potent greenhouse gases that have exhibited a significant increase in emissions globally. There is a critical and growing demand for robust tools capable of analyzing a range of emission trajectories to inform evidence-based formulation of effective climate policy and instruments. This study develops a novel bottom-up projection framework for F-gas emissions in Portugal (2022–2050). The approach extended the existing methodology of the Portuguese National Inventory Report by integrating energy system modelling outputs to provide detailed activity data on equipment stocks, dynamic leakage and recovery rates, and sector-specific technological transitions. The framework allows explicit simulations of national F-gas emissions from 2022 to 2050, under four regulatory and technological pathways and four scenarios: a Baseline, the 2014 and 2024 EU F-gas Regulations, and a Strategic Emission Cut (SEC) scenario combining advanced leak detection and the accelerated phase-out of high-global warming potential refrigerants. Commercial refrigeration and mobile air conditioning dominate future emissions and together account for roughly 70% of the reductions achieved under the SEC pathway. National emissions are projected to decrease up to 81% under full implementation of the 2024 Regulation and by up to 91% under the SEC scenario by 2050, relative to 2021 levels. The results demonstrate the capacity of high-resolution bottom-up approaches as tools for data-driven policy strategies for climate neutrality.