The contributions of refined anthropogenic sources to PM2.5 air quality and health impacts in China from 2020 to 2030, and associated policy benefits

In this study, we quantified the contributions of twenty-three emission sectors to ambient PM 2.5 concentrations and associated premature deaths in China from 2020 to 2030 using three key components: 1) a China-specific reduced-complexity air quality model, 2) high-resolution emission data for refined sectors, and 3) the exposure-response function (ERF) from the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Our findings indicate that the implementation of end-of-pipe control policies and energy policies would lead to a reduction in the nationwide population-weighted PM 2.5 concentration from 41.2 μg/m 3 to 26.3 μg/m 3 between 2020 and 2030, with the largest contributor shifting from residential biomass burning to off-road mobile machinery during this period. Correspondingly, annual PM 2.5 -related premature deaths are projected to decline from 1.8 million to 1.2 million, with the primary contributor to mortality shifting from residential biomass burning to coal-fired power plants. Notably, relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, these policies are expected to yield substantial co-benefits by 2030, including a reduction of 30.2 μg/m 3 in population-weighted PM 2.5 concentration and the annual avoidance of 1.3 million premature deaths. Key policies driving these significant improvements in PM 2.5 levels and public health include: increasing the proportion of renewable energy in power generation; tightening emission standards and phasing out outdated coal-fired industrial boilers, cement plants, and iron and steel facilities; replacing residential coal consumption; controlling emissions from coal-fired heating plants; and upgrading emission standards for on-road diesel trucks and off-road mobile machinery.