Model support tools for Informed Decision Making - MIDAS and sensitivity analysis

Models play a key role in informing evidence-based policymaking, particularly in addressing complex societal-economic-environmental issues. By promoting informed decision-making and responsible use of models, the European Commission (EC) has developed tools and procedures for a trustworthy modelling workflow. Two complementary good modelling practice tools of the EC are presented, and their crucial role in enhancing modelling transparency is detailed. MIDAS – a publicly accessible meta-database that consolidates a standardised information on models and provides real-time information to modelling-supported EU legislative documents – ensures FAIR principles in model use. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis methods allows us to identify and prioritise sources of uncertainty, and visualise how model uncertainties affect decision-making. To illustrate the role of sensitivity analysis for policy making an application on the Screening for High Emission Reduction Potential on Air (SHERPA) model is presented. The SIML@B tool for global sensitivity analysis developed by European Commission has been employed.