Explaining Indonesia's failed energy transition: Mapping power and support for decarbonization among government institutions and actors

The USD 20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), REDD+, and various multilateral development bank programs all aim to facilitate decarbonization in Indonesia, but so far, the country has made little progress. Many of the existing initiatives and existing literature overlooks the political dynamics among incumbent powerful actors that shape and constrain such processes. This study draws on theories of regime resistance and institutional agency to examine how power asymmetries, competing logics, bureaucratic fragmentation, and political short-termism among central government institutions shape the implementation of decarbonization policies. The analysis is based on policy documents and elite interviews with senior officials in the Indonesian legislature, regulatory bodies and agencies, and state-owned enterprises, and reveals that resistance to decarbonization is reinforced by interactions among state bodies. Moreover, it finds that institutional power and support for decarbonization are inversely correlated: bodies with the authority to shape policy, such as the presidency and key economic ministries, prioritize (perceived) growth, energy security, and affordability while ministries and agencies with a stronger climate orientation, such as the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Forestry, or National Development Planning Agency, typically lack the institutional leverage to ensure change. This misalignment helps explain the limited progress on decarbonization. Resistance operates through three main mechanisms: the strategic use of policy instruments that prolong coal dependence, politicized planning processes, and the use of inter-ministerial veto points. Together, these dynamics reinforce carbon-intensive development pathways despite expanding global support for energy transition.