Air conditioning and the future electricity system in Great Britain

As summers get hotter due to climate change, demand for air conditioning is increasing in temperate regions where it was previously low. The UK has targets to decarbonise its electricity system. Surveys suggest residential air conditioning ownership is growing faster than previously assumed, raising questions about the compatibility of growing demand with decarbonisation goals. In this study, we explore whether increasing residential air conditioning would increase the challenge or cost of operating a decarbonised electricity system. Future summer electricity in Great Britain may be low carbon, but we argue that official modelling assumes unrealistically slow growth of residential air conditioning. The summer adequacy of the future energy system is less well studied compared to winter, and we suggest that adequacy in summer has not been sufficiently explored. A more detailed quantitative analysis is required of the sensitivity of electricity system design to demand assumptions, and we outline what would be required. If the electricity system is built around underestimated demand, there is risk that this will lead to missed decarbonisation targets or greater operational challenges. But, if low demand assumptions are incorrectly treated as constraints, opportunities may be missed to protect health from overheating and to accelerate heat pump uptake.