The effects of shutting down the last nuclear power plants in Germany: A model-based analysis of network flows and redispatch

This paper conducts a model-based ex-post analysis to investigate the isolated effect of shutting down the last six nuclear power plants in Germany. The study focuses on the analysis of Germany’s power supply and transmission network. Utilizing linear optimization, an electricity system model is employed to compare a scenario including the last six nuclear power plants to a scenario without nuclear power in Germany. Additionally, a hypothetical 2030 scenario is employed as a feasibility study to explore how the power sector could transform beyond the decommissioning of nuclear power. The results reveal that Germany has sufficient supply capacities of lignite, natural gas, and hard coal to compensate for the end of the commercial utilization of nuclear power plants in the short term, without the creation of new bottlenecks in the transmission grid. An analysis of historical developments shows, that despite the shutdowns of nuclear power facilities, Germany was able to reduce domestic direct C O 2 emissions associated with electricity production in 2023, by utilizing measures such as an increase of renewable energy capacities and additional electricity imports.