Deciphering drivers and pathways of green and low-carbon technology innovation in China: An extended LMDI decomposition and policy-scenario analysis

This study addresses the urgent need for technological solutions to combat climate change by examining the development of green and low-carbon technology (GLCT) patents in China from 2000 to 2020. Given China's dual-carbon goals to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the nation's energy and environmental challenges are critical. Using LMDI decomposition, the study reveals significant growth in GLCT patents, driven by R&D investment, renewable energy adoption, and carbon reduction policies, while factors like energy intensity inhibit further advancements. Regional analysis highlights the diversity in GLCT development across China's power grids, where grids like North China lead in fossil energy carbon reduction due to high fossil fuel dependency, and East and South China excel in clean and renewable energy patents. Future scenarios aligned with a 2.0 °C target show that robust climate policies can substantially accelerate GLCT innovation, underscoring the need for region-specific strategies to support China's low-carbon transition and global climate commitments. • GLCT patents in China could rise by 126% by 2030 under strict climate policies. • Low-carbon economy, renewable energy, and R&D intensity drive GLCT growth. • North China leads in carbon reduction tech; East China dominates clean energy. • Scenario analysis reveals carbon pricing as a key driver of future GLCT innovation. • Region-specific policies recommended for optimizing China's green transition.