Interconnectedness and shocks transmission between natural gas, gold, and stock markets in the GCC during financial and political instability

This study explores the dynamic interconnectedness among natural gas, gold, and stock markets across six GCC countries from 2014 to 2024, with a focus on periods of geopolitical and health crises. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, we identified natural gas as a significant transmitter and receiver of shocks, particularly during the IP conflict and the RU war. Gold exhibits moderate safe-haven characteristics, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. Spillover intensity varies across countries and crises, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE showing increased integration with global energy markets, while Qatar and Bahrain remain consistently vulnerable to gas shocks. Our findings highlight the role of natural gas in financial contagion and have implications for energy policy and regional market stability. • Analyzes dynamic connectedness among natural gas, gold, and GCC stocks using TVP-VAR and wavelet coherence. • Identifies natural gas as a dominant shock transmitter and receiver during crises. • Confirms gold's moderate safe-haven role in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. • Saudi Arabia and the UAE are more linked to global gas markets, while Qatar and Bahrain remain vulnerable. • Provides region-specific insights into financial market behavior during instability.