Composite weight-catastrophe progression model: Assessment of external risks in transnational oil and gas pipelines

Transnational oil and gas pipelines serve as vital strategic corridors within China's framework for energy import dependency, with their external risks directly impacting energy security and economic development. However, existing research still exhibits shortcomings in the systematic quantitative assessment of the external risks associated with these pipelines and in characterizing the features of risk evolution. To address these gaps, this paper constructs a risk assessment framework integrating the Composite Weight-Catastrophe Progression Method, which combines the Entropy Weight Method and the CRITIC method. This framework is used to conduct a quantitative evaluation of transnational pipeline external risks across four dimensions: political, economic, social, and diplomatic. The composite weighting approach effectively mitigates the subjectivity and information redundancy inherent in relying on a single weighting method, while the Catastrophe Progression Method is employed to capture the nonlinear characteristics and potential abrupt shifts in the risk evolution process. This study conducts an empirical analysis focusing on the countries traversed by China's transnational oil and gas pipelines along the three major strategic directions—Southwest, Northwest, and Northeast—from 2010 to 2023, with validation provided via the TOPSIS method for comparison. The results indicate that: Myanmar consistently demonstrates the highest risk level. Russia exhibits the lowest overall risk, albeit with notable fluctuations over time. The risk level in Kazakhstan has shown a continuous decline and has fallen below that of Russia in recent years. In contrast, Uzbekistan's risk remains higher than Kazakhstan's and is currently undergoing a gradual upward trend. This research provides methodological references for assessing external risks of transnational energy corridors and offers insights for optimizing pipeline arrangements and national energy security policies.