An implementation roadmap to quantify California climate change policy

California is committed to decarbonizing all energy sectors with state law requiring the California Air Resources Board to establish, and update every five years, a Scoping Plan to achieve the State climate goals, currently carbon neutrality by 2045. The 2022 Plan is tantamount to a blueprint, providing a high-level projection of energy demand by fuel type, the resulting GHG emissions, and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air carbon capture (DACC) capacities needed to offset legacy emissions. This study creates an implementation roadmap for the blueprint by (1) identifying and assessing the technologies most likely to support the required reduction in carbon emission, (2) establishing the cost of the technology rollout as a function of renewable energy resources deployed, (3) delineating the least annual system cost and levelized cost of electricity, (4) examining the generation and curtailment profiles associated with least-cost portfolios, and (5) introducing a Scaling Factor to assess the impact of renewable energy capacity on system cost and curtailment behavior. Results show the Scoping Plan projects accurately the deployment of renewable solar and wind, requires a least system cost of $99B in new investments compared to $200B in avoided health costs in 2045, and identifies generalizations within the policy that need further investigation to ensure a robust transition to a carbon neutral economy.