Critical and bulk material considerations for designing low-carbon transport-energy pathways in Kenya

This paper evaluates critical and bulk material demand and associated emissions for Kenya's transport-energy futures using a bottom-up transport-energy-environment model (TEAM-Kenya) and a material demand projection tool (Mat-dp). Four pathways reflect varying levels of government involvement, shaping divergent pathways for transport electrification, vehicle ownership, and public transit to 2050. Scenarios prioritising public transport infrastructure and accessible finance drive higher material demand linked to electrification but yield lower overall emissions and reduced fuel import dependency, which consumes a significant proportion of Kenya's foreign exchange requirements. Scenarios with minimal government intervention sustain reliance on internal combustion engine vehicles, producing higher fuel imports despite lower vehicle material demand. Critical minerals and material demand grows under high electrification pathways reaching 0.13 Mt by 2050 in the highest-electrification scenarios and 0.07 Mt in the lowest. Battery materials and non-aluminium metals together rise from 19 to 22% of critical material demand in 2025 to 42–48% by 2050 in high electrification pathways but only reach 18% in the lowest electrification pathway. Embodied emissions from material production reach 1.8–2.3 Mt CO2e for bulk materials and 1.0–1.3 Mt CO2e for critical materials by 2050, an order of magnitude below direct transport emissions. The additional battery-import cost under high-electrification pathways offsets only 12–19% of the annual fuel-import saving they deliver, indicating that fossil-fuel import dependence is not substituted for an equivalent battery dependency. These findings underscore the importance of coordinated policy support for electrification and mass transit to balance material resource needs with emissions reductions.