Expecting the worst: empathic forecasting errors and vegetarian meal requests

Perceived social barriers impede meat reduction efforts, yet little is known about whether individuals accurately predict others' emotional responses to vegetarian meal requests in social settings. This study examines ‘empathic forecasting errors’ – systematic mispredictions of others' emotional reactions – in relation to these requests. Using an experimental vignette approach, we surveyed 1068 UK meat eaters to measure their affective responses to vegetarian meal requests across four dining scenarios (a dinner party, a pub carvery, a BBQ, and a restaurant), yielding 4178 observations. Additionally, in a parallel survey, 444 UK adults who abstain from or restrict their meat consumption predicted the meat eaters' reactions to the same four scenarios (1776 observations). Combining the data on requesters and their company, we found that vegetarian meal requesters systematically mispredicted meat eaters' reactions, consistently ‘expecting the worst’: they significantly underestimated positive emotional responses (6 out of 10 positive emotions) and overestimated negative reactions (all 10 negative emotions). These empathic forecasting errors occur regardless of whether requesters disclose their diet type or motives. These mispredictions may act as psychological barriers to sustainable dietary shifts by discouraging vegetarian meal requests in social situations, suggesting that interventions addressing these forecasting errors could support more plant-based eating behaviours.