A stochastic SITRS cholera model with treatment failure and self-recovery: Framework, results, and public health insights

Franklin Open 2026 Open access

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Authors: Hailu Tkue Welu, Yohannes Yirga Kefela, Habtu Alemayehu Atsbaha, Hailay Weldegiorgis Berhe, Mo’tassem Al-arydah
DOI: 10.1016/j.fraope.2026.100735
Cited by: 1
References: 22

Abstract

Cholera remains a persistent public health threat in resource-limited settings, where treatment access is variable, self-recovery is common, and environmental conditions are highly uncertain. Existing models rarely capture all three factors simultaneously. We develop a stochastic SITRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Treated-Recovered-Susceptible) cholera model that incorporates natural self-recovery (γ2), treatment failure (ɛ), and differential mortality between treated and untreated cases (τ1≠τ2), with environmental variability embedded as multiplicative noise. Our analysis yields two key findings: First, environmental noise reduces outbreak potential (R0S

Fields of Study & Subjects

Vibrio bacteria research studies Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models Sepsis Diagnosis and Treatment

Publication details

Journal / source
Franklin Open
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
16
Pages
100735–100735
Publication date
18 August 2026
Language
EN