Spatial and temporal responses of a predator-prey assemblage to the COVID-19 anthropause

Human recreation increasingly influences wildlife behavior, yet spatial and temporal responses are rarely studied together. We used the COVID-19 lockdown and pre-lockdown survey periods in Bardia National Park, Nepal, as a quasi-experiment to investigate how sudden relaxation in human recreation alters site use and diel activity patterns of predator–prey assemblage. Using camera trapping data, we analyzed camera stations that were in operation during both survey periods within an identical 48-day temporal window [24 March–10 May; pre-lockdown (2019) vs. lockdown (2020)]. Spatial responses were estimated using a two-season, multi-species hierarchical site use model, and temporal responses with kernel density overlap and a probability of diurnality. Site use increased during the lockdown for apex predators and several ungulate prey, especially tiger, wild boar, and nilgai, while chital showed little change, and others showed highly uncertain changes with credible intervals overlapping zero. Prey ungulates broadly reclaimed daylight: chital and barking deer shifted mean activity peaks 2–3 hours later, hog deer shifted earlier with a marked reshaping of its activity curve, and sambar moved from nocturnal to crepuscular peaks. Tiger activity changed little overall, though diurnal activity decreased. Year-specific functional responses to greenness (NDVI), elevation, and human disturbance were mostly similar across years but with higher predicted site use in 2020, indicating increased habitat permeability rather than changes in habitat selection. These patterns suggest that spatial and temporal responses are only partly aligned across species, so management strategies that protect both where and when wildlife can operate—for example, zoning away from key corridors and quiet hours around dawn and dusk—may be most effective in maintaining access to critical habitats and activity periods.