Spatiotemporal evolution in species richness patterns and future conservation prioritization of Chenopodiaceae in Xinjiang, China under climate change

Xinjiang serves as a distribution center for Chenopodiaceae species in China and a key region for global research on their ecological adaptation. Clarifying spatiotemporal patterns of Chenopodiaceae species richness in Xinjiang aids in developing scientific conservation strategies. Using species occurrence data and environmental variables, this study employed ensemble species distribution models to simulate historical, current, and future richness patterns across Xinjiang, analyzing Species Migration Changes. Multidimensional climate velocities were calculated via nearest-neighbor search algorithms. Integrating species richness as the feature layer and climate velocity as the cost layer, priority conservation areas (PCAs) were identified using the Zonation model.Key findings: (1) Mean richness was higher during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene,but declined significantly by the Current period, with richness hotspots contracting to northern Ili Valley, northwestern and southern Junggar Basin, fragmented areas along western and northern Tarim Basin margins. Under future SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, mean richness declines by 2050s but recovers by 2090s. (2) Under SSP1-2.6, mean climate velocity decreases from 1.97 km/yr (present–2050s) to 1.02 km/yr (2050s–2090s), with high-velocity zones shifting from western Tarim Basin to northern Tianshan Mountains and western Tacheng Prefectur.Under SSP5-8.5, velocity increases from 3.45 km/yr (present–2050s) to 4.35 km/yr (2050s–2090s), with expanding high-velocity zones in western Tarim Basin. (3) Current PCAs focus on northern Ili Valley, northwestern and southern Junggar Basin. Under SSP1-2.6, PCAs expand toward central Junggar Basin by 2050s and stabilize by 2090s. Under SSP5-8.5, PCAs continually expand toward central Junggar Basin from the current to the 2090s.