Competition risk among production-living-ecological space of Mainland Southeast Asia in 2050

Balancing ecological conservation and social development is essential for meeting global sustainability targets, exemplified by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework’s Target 3 to protect at least 30% of critical biodiversity areas by 2030 through protected area expansion. However, social development cannot always yield to ecological targets, making the implementation of this target face significant challenges, particularly in developing countries. Spatial competition emerges as expanding ecological spaces often conflict with areas designated for human production and living—a phenomenon expected to intensify in the context of global change. In this study, we define the concept of "spatial competition" and use Mainland Southeast Asia as a case study to map the competition risks among production, living, and ecological spaces in 2050, and analyze inter-country variations. We found that urban–biodiversity competition risks concentrate in major cities, while cropland–biodiversity risks are prevalent in southeastern coastal and central regions—with 10–40% of urban lands and over 50% of croplands overlapping with biodiversity hotspots. We then analyzed the underlying driving factors of competition risk using a random forest model. The analysis shows that 25 variables (including human and environmental factors) significantly contribute to these risks, with urban–biodiversity competition risk driven mainly by socioeconomic factors (e.g., GDP, nighttime lights) and cropland–biodiversity risk by road density and environmental factors (e.g., slope, precipitation). These findings underscore an intensifying spatial competition, provide a theoretical framework to address the protection-development dilemma, and offer insights for sustainable development strategies in developing regions.