Detecting farmland green production efficiency considering Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Yellow River Basin: Dynamics, drivers, and challenges

Pursuing sustainable growth of Farmland Green Production Efficiency (FGPE) is crucial for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), SDG13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land) in ecologically fragile basins. However, the dynamics, drivers, and challenges of FGPE remain underexplored within the SDGs framework, especially at finer spatial scale and across coupled “society–economy–policy–climate” (SEPC) drivers. This study develops an FGPE assessment framework through SDGs lens, utilizing “elements–processes–functions–drivers” paradigm and data from 447 counties in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2022. We apply super-efficiency SBM-ML, spatial correlation analysis, and geographically and temporally weighted regression models to assess FGPE growth challenges. Results reveal a “U-shaped” trend in the number of high-FGPE counties, with a rapid increase after 2016. Specifically, FGPE across the YRB increased by 97.6% from 2000 to 2022, though spatial correlation declined by 44.7%, indicating weakening spatial spillover effect. Despite the overall progress, the YRB still faces multiple challenges, including uneven regional development, weakening spatial correlation, climate sensitivity, economic structural shift, and weak policy effect. The findings highlight that FGPE improvements align with key SDGs targets, including enhancing food security (SDG 2), promoting sustainable production (SDG 12), increasing climate resilience (SDG 13), and conserving land ecosystems (SDG 15). Region-specific strategies are recommended: enhancing climate resilience and ecological conservation in the upper reaches, promoting technological diffusion via urban-industrial transformation in the middle reaches, and advancing green agricultural technologies with more local financial support in the lower reaches.