Leveraging ecosystem services for SDG synergies in the Pearl River Basin: An integrated network analysis and implementation pathways

Understanding the specific contributions of ecosystem services (ES) to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is crucial, yet challenging, given their complex interrelationships. This study develops an integrated approach, combining network analysis and structural equation modeling, to elucidate how ESs related to food, water, and carbon interact with and influence the achievement of SDGs 2, 6, 7, 11, 12, 13, and 15 in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) from 2000 to 2019. We independently evaluated the supply, demand, and flow of ESs, along with SDG scores. Our results show that despite an overall increase in the average SDG score in the PRB from 44.07 to 55.84 over the two decades, spatial mismatches between ES supply and demand across cities intensified, primarily driven by ES flows. Notably, ES demand emerged as a dominant factor shaping SDG scores, particularly for SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). Food-related ES flows exhibited the most significant positive impact on regional SDG performance. Furthermore, synergistic effects between ES supply (food, water, carbon) and SDGs strengthened over time, especially for SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). Among the three ESs, the food ES has the highest impact on the SDGs, with coefficients of 0.28, 0.47, and 0.24 for the ES supply, demand, and flow, respectively. This study introduces a novel framework for the basin scale that simultaneously quantifies both the ES supply-demand flows and their causal pathways to SDGs. These findings indicate that optimizing ES flows through improved resource allocation and cross-sectoral governance is a key mechanism for enhancing regional sustainability.