Spatial difference, dynamic evolution and influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency in China at the provincial level

As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China is actively pursuing its goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This has necessitated the analysis of the spatial and temporal differences in interprovincial carbon emission efficiency (CEE). This study develops a multimethod analytical framework to systematically investigate the static differences, dynamic evolution, and influencing factors of CEE across 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2007 to 2021. Results demonstrate the national average CEE fluctuating between 0.878 and 1.093, with the central region exhibiting the highest mean efficiency at 0.9627 from a static perspective. Considerable disparities are observed between the eastern and western regions. Moreover, high-CEE regions are observed to suppress CEE growth in neighboring low-CEE areas. The Gini coefficient decomposition method reveals inter-regional differences as the main source of the overall inequality, accounting for 67.31% on average. Urbanization and industrial upgrading are observed to be the drivers of CEE, with population density being the strongest suppressor. GDP per capita and technological development are observed to contribute to regional CEE disparities via considerable negative spatial spillover effects. These findings provide a valuable basis for coordinating regional carbon emission reductions in China.