A precedent for the protein transition: Evidence from the history of margarine for the feasibility of transitioning to alternative meat and dairy substitutes

Alternative meat and dairy products made from plants, cultivated cells, and mycoprotein have had several recent technological breakthroughs. These products have the potential to radically reduce the environmental footprint of the meat and dairy industry. However, they still face social and political obstacles; notable among with are consumer opposition and issues of consumer taste. The history of margarine suggests that these obstacles can be overcome. Early margarine, in its early history, faced many of the same political and sociocultural challenges that alternative proteins confront today; including cultural opposition and a politically-entrenched butter industry. This did not stop it from becoming the dominant spreadable fat product during the mid-twentieth century. We present an historical narrative of the success of margarine, suggesting relevant lessons for alternative proteins. If alternative proteins enjoy the same success during the 21st century that margarine enjoyed in the 20th, it would imply at least a 50% reduction (per unit of protein consumed) in greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use, and eutrophication. While we stress this analysis is not predictive, it suggests that a radical transition to alternative proteins is socially, culturally, and politically feasible, despite the formidable obstacles.