The emerging and escalating consequences of rural depopulation in the Himalaya

The Himalayan region, home to fifty million inhabitants and sustaining more than one billion, is experiencing mass rural depopulation and agrarian transition, the consequences of which are complex, varied, and still nascent. We convened a panel of 34 experts from various fields of socio-environmental sciences working in the Himalaya to conduct a horizon scan to identify escalating and emerging issues arising from rural depopulation over the next 10–15 years. The panel identified a total of 22 issues. We then integrated systems thinking to map the linkages among the issues in a causal network, illuminating the cascading impacts arising from rural depopulation. Through the novel combination of methods, key issues (nodes in the causal network) were identified; these included escalating issues of farmland abandonment, vegetation succession, and rural livelihood resilience. Consequential emergence of threats and prospects to mountain society, natural resources, and political economy were identified. The identification of key nodes and emergent outcomes (or drivers) and consideration of their cascading effects provide avenues for developing targeted policies to mitigate the negative and support the positive outcomes (or drivers). Application and inquiry of the causal network suggested a strong need for policy makers to consider multiple dimensions when addressing complex and contextual issues. The novel approach combining horizon scanning and causal network analysis advances proactive policy discourse and prioritizes future research needs for rural depopulation outcomes in the Himalaya. Both the methods and the issues raised by rural depopulation in mountain environments are relevant for other regions and socio-ecological processes.