Decoding the environment-health-economy cascading effects of energy transition: Evidence from the Sichuan-Chongqing economic region in China

Energy transition is pivotal for climate mitigation and energy security. As one of China's four core economic regions, the Sichuan-Chongqing Region faces distinct challenges in its energy transition. Existing studies rarely quantify interdependencies across energy, environment, health, and economy. By utilizing the Low Emissions Analysis Platform for Sichuan-Chongqing (LEAP-SC) model, we explicitly trace how emission reductions propagate through cascading mechanisms to project energy consumption demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and air pollutant emissions from 2023 to 2060. Key findings include: (1) Achieving carbon peaking necessitates coordinated transitions in both energy consumption and production sectors, with electricity playing a central role; (2) Energy transition generates synergistic health benefits and significant indirect economic gains by drastically reducing greenhouse gases and other air pollutants, particularly PM2.5, NOX and SO2; (3) Premature deaths attributable to air pollution are projected to decline steadily, with young and middle-aged populations capturing the largest share of economic dividends. However, the benefits for children may be underestimated, and the elderly require enhanced health protection. This research offers a scientific foundation for planning regional energy transition pathways and promoting equitable energy transition. Owing to its adaptable research methodology, it also provides valuable insights for other developing countries with similar natural conditions in achieving their energy transition and meeting SDG7.