Natural resource exploitation and productive capacity as drivers of ecological footprint: The roles of technology and economic policy uncertainty

• Natural resources, capacity, and policy uncertainty shape sustainability in Asia. • Strong capacity and stable policies lower ecological footprints in resource-rich nations. • Growth and FDI raise ecological footprints, showing key development trade-offs • MMQR, KRLS, and cointegration methods capture nonlinear and long-run effects. • Policies must align natural resource use with efficiency, environmental care, and stability. Natural resource exploitation—particularly the extraction of minerals and related primary commodities—continues to shape patterns of economic expansion, structural transformation, and environmental strain across developing regions. Understanding how these resource dynamics interact with broader economic structures and institutional conditions is crucial for designing sustainable development pathways. In this context, productive capacity, economic policy uncertainty, and ecological pressure emerge as central dimensions through which the environmental consequences of development can be assessed. This study investigates the impact of the productive capacity index and economic policy uncertainty on the ecological footprint of 33 Asian developing countries from 2000 to 2022, explicitly considering mineral resource dependence, foreign direct investment, and economic growth as control variables. Using advanced econometric techniques—including slope heterogeneity diagnostics, the Westerlund cointegration test, Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR), and Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS)—the analysis reveals that productive capacity, policy uncertainty, and natural resources (including minerals) are negatively associated with the ecological footprint, suggesting that stronger institutional and productive structures mitigate environmental pressures. By contrast, economic growth and foreign direct investment are positively related to ecological footprint, highlighting the environmental trade-offs of rapid expansion and external capital flows. The findings underscore the need for sustainable mineral resource management and integrated policy frameworks that align productive capacity with environmental stewardship. The study concludes that resource-rich economies must balance mineral exploitation with long-term energy and environmental strategies, ensuring that productivity gains do not come at the cost of ecological degradation.