Technological innovation, mineral scarcity, and the future of sustainable energy systems

The accelerating global energy transition has placed renewable energy at the center of debates on sustainable development, yet the determinants of renewable energy consumption remain uneven across countries. This paper investigates the drivers of renewable energy consumption in the top ten energy-using economies—China, the United States, India, Russia, Japan, Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, Canada, and Mexico—over the period 2000 to 2023. A comprehensive econometric strategy is employed, beginning with descriptive statistics and correlation analysis, followed by cross-sectional dependence tests, unit root and cointegration analyses, and slope heterogeneity assessments. The central estimation technique, the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), is applied to capture heterogeneous effects across the conditional distribution of renewable energy consumption. The results demonstrate that research and development expenditure significantly enhances renewable energy consumption, particularly in higher quantiles where innovation capacity is stronger. Mineral rents exhibit a dual role: in some cases, dependence on extractive revenues delays renewable transitions, while in others, resource income provides fiscal space for diversification. Energy use per capita remains closely tied to fossil fuel dependence, reinforcing the importance of efficiency policies. GDP per capita positively influences renewable energy adoption, but disparities across countries highlight the unequal capacity to finance sustainable transitions. Urbanization contributes both opportunities and challenges, depending on planning and infrastructure, while foreign direct investment acts as a catalyst when directed toward green sectors. These findings underscore the need for differentiated policy strategies. Innovation and research and development investment should be scaled up, resource rents must be managed prudently to avoid dependency, and efficiency measures are required to decouple growth from emissions. International support mechanisms and regulatory frameworks should ensure that capital inflows are aligned with sustainability goals.