Trust during COVID-19: comparing two high-trust countries with different pandemic strategies

Objectives Sweden and Norway, two high-trust countries sharing many cultural similarities, adopted notably different strategies in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. While Sweden relied on a mitigation strategy emphasising individual responsibility, Norway swiftly imposed strict restrictions. This study aimed to examine whether levels of political and social trust differed between the two countries, whether trust changed from before to after the pandemic, and whether any changes differed between the countries in ways that might reflect their divergent pandemic strategies. Methods We analysed data from the repeated cross-sectional European Social Survey (ESS) covering rounds from 2018/19 and 2022/23 to assess levels and changes in political and social trust in Sweden and Norway. In parallel, we used data from the VaxPref survey (2022–2023), a cross-sectional survey, to examine how trust in public health authorities, newspapers, and social media related to COVID-19 infection and individual characteristics. Variation in trust was analysed using ordinary least squares regression models. Results Political and social trust were high in both countries, though consistently higher in Norway than in Sweden both before and after the pandemic. Trust levels remained stable over time in both countries, with no significant changes between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. We found no differential trends between Sweden and Norway that could be attributed to their different pandemic strategies. COVID-19 infection was not associated with trust levels in either country. Conclusion Despite their markedly different pandemic management strategies, both countries exhibited stable levels of political and social trust throughout the period studied. The findings suggest a sustained rally-around-the-flag effect in both high-trust societies, indicating that the choice of pandemic strategy—whether strict lockdowns or voluntary compliance—did not undermine public trust in institutions or fellow citizens.