Long-term physical health impacts of disasters: Evidence from the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake

This paper looks at the impact of the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake on physical health outcomes 18-24 months after the event. The data come from the longitudinal Indonesia Family Life Survey 2000 and 2007 for a sample of around 4400 individuals representing those affected by the earthquake and a carefully constructed control group. Health outcomes are measured using an index capturing long-term health (Activities of Daily Living), physical pain, sleep disturbance and the effect of chronic illness onset on the ability to take up paid work. These health outcomes are regressed on earthquake destruction and pre-hazard characteristics, accounting for endogeneity via instrumental variable estimation. The results show that a complete (100%) loss of assets -experienced by over a fifth of those who lived in earthquake-affected areas- is associated with an 11% increase in difficulty in daily activities relative to baseline and an 8% increase in pain relative to the control group. It also shows that for the subset of respondents who experienced full asset loss and were diagnosed with at least one chronic illness since the quake, perceived limitations to take up paid work increased by 18.5% relative to the control group average. Thus, the negative physical health impacts of the earthquake were persistent and significant suggesting the importance of post-disaster health and labour market support well beyond the emergency phase. These findings are highly relevant in the context of more recent disasters such as the 2023 Türkiye-Syria, Morocco and Afghanistan earthquakes where long-term health consequences and recovery strategies are still unfolding. • Total asset loss (experienced by 20% of affected) increased difficulty in physical functionality by 11% relative to baseline • Total asset loss and chronic condition onset increased perceived limitations to work by 18.5%, relative to the control group • Total asset loss increased physical pain experienced by 8%, relative to control group • Negative physical health impacts of the earthquake were persistent and significant two years after the event • Post-disaster health and labour market support is needed well beyond the emergency phase for better recovery