The effect of evacuation decisions on flash flood preparedness in Fujairah, UAE: When the waters rise are we ready in desert country?

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), known for its dry desert climate, receives only 140 - 200 mm (5.5 – 8.0 in) of rainfall per year. Over the past decade there has been a notable increase in the intensity of rain and occurrences of flash flooding in the Emirates of Dubai, Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah. Although these events have caused fatalities and large-scale economic losses, there has been very little research about the increasing vulnerabilities of the population to flash flooding or about community preparedness and response to this hazard. The present study aims to fill this gap by examining households’ decisions to evacuate in response to flooding and their intentions to prepare for future floods. A questionnaire based on the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) was administered to 223 residents in the Emirate of Fujairah. The resulting data analysis identified several significant predictors of flash flood evacuation. These include risk perceptions, both positive and negative affective responses, and receipt of warnings from government authorities and news media platforms. Other significant predictors were the number of elderly people in the household, the respondent’s age, and home ownership. There were significant differences among flood preparedness actions that households intend to take, as well as differences between evacuees and non-evacuees in their expectations of adopting permanent relocation and structural mitigation. The insights derived from this study can strengthen emergency management agencies’ support for household preparedness and response to future flash floods. • Unusual flash floods in the dry desert climate of the Emirate of Fujairah, in the UAE have intensified over the last decade resulting in increasing losses to life and property. • Risk perceptions, affective responses, and evacuation warnings are the strongest predictors of flash flood evacuation decisions by risk area residents. • Expectations of permanent relocation and structural mitigation actions were higher among evacuees than non-evacuees, but these actions were relatively unpopular in both groups. • Further research is needed to assess the impediments to household hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness so that government authorities can design effective hazard education and mitigation incentive programs.