Governance and adaptive capacity: Greater losses in assets, flexibility, and confidence among tourism operators in low-governance contexts during the COVID-19 pandemic

Understanding how adaptive capacity shifts in response to major systemic shocks is essential for reducing disaster risk and strengthening resilience. While previous research has focused primarily on climate-related hazards, this study provides the first longitudinal quantification of multiple adaptive capacity domains across governance gradients during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine how reef tourism operators’ capacity to adapt across the Asia-Pacific region evolved during the first year of the pandemic, a non-environmental but highly disruptive event with disaster-like impacts on coastal economies. Drawing on recall data from 166 operators in countries with varying levels of governance effectiveness, we assess substantial changes across six adaptive capacity domains: agency, assets, flexibility, learning, social organization, and socio-cognitive constructs. Results reveal widespread declines in material assets regardless of governance context, but divergent patterns in human and psychological dimensions. In countries with higher governance effectiveness, adaptation confidence displayed a balanced pattern of increases and decreases; in lower-effectiveness settings, confidence was more likely to decline. Access to skilled labour decreased in stronger institutional settings but increased where governance was weaker. Significant reductions in agency and flexibility occurred only in lower governance-effectiveness contexts. A positive correlation between changes in adaptation confidence and savings, found only in higher governance-effectiveness countries, underscores the interdependence between material and socio-cognitive factors. These findings highlight governance as a key driver of adaptive trajectories and challenge assumptions about universal benefits of diversification. By revealing context-specific pathways of capacity decline or strengthening, this work informs targeted risk reduction and recovery strategies for tourism-dependent communities. • Tracks adaptive capacity change during COVID-19 among reef tourism operators • Compares responses across countries with differing governance effectiveness • Finds widespread asset loss but divergent changes in human and social capital • Declines in agency and flexibility stronger in weaker governance contexts • Links material asset loss with reduced adaptation confidence in high-capacity states