Short-term impacts of 2016 floods on the demographic change and housing prices in the state of Louisiana

This study provides a short-term analysis of racial composition, household income, and housing price shifts following the 2016 Louisiana floods, offering critical insights for disaster recovery and housing policy. Employing descriptive statistics and introducing a novel population monitoring framework, the study quantifies immediate changes in population dynamics relative to historical changes. Furthermore, multiple linear regression analyses are conducted using distinct housing price indicators as response variables, while controlling for a consistent set of explanatory variables. The parish-level analysis reveals that in Federal Disaster (FD) declared parishes, the White population declined by 0.54%, whereas Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino populations increased by 3.81% and 5.91%, respectively. Notably, White populations decreased in 75% of FD parishes, while Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino populations increased in 87.50% and 38.89% of these parishes, respectively. During the same period, the median household income of the total population has increased by 4.43%, with a 14.79% rise in medium-priced ($200k–$499k) house counts and a 28.57% reduction in high-priced (>$1m) house counts in FD parishes. Regression results highlight the National Flood Insurance Program’s documented damage and Black or African American population percentage change as the strongest explanatory variables across multiple models and parish categories. These findings underscore that post-disaster short-term population shifts are central to housing market dynamics and recovery after major flooding events. This study advances the literature by empirically demonstrating the linkage between flood-induced demographic displacement and housing price changes, and by proposing a replicable population monitoring framework.