Consequences that matter: Community insights from the Southwestern Puerto Rico Seismic Sequence

Puerto Rico is exposed to damaging earthquakes due to its location on the northeastern margin of the Caribbean Plate. Its unique combination of factors, including high population, informal construction practices, and environmental hazards, creates a heightened risk of loss of life and property. This qualitative research study employed a thematic analysis approach to examine ten semi-structured interviews physically conducted in Puerto Rico and online during the summer of 2023, along with an analysis of twelve government reports to investigate the consequences that concern stakeholders working in the emergency management sector associated with a potential major seismic event on the island. The identified consequences (i.e., impacts of concern) include critical physical infrastructure, such as Puerto Rico's electrical system, as well as social and cascading impacts, such as mental health, food supply, shelter’s sanitary conditions, and access to healthcare. For social and cascading impacts, we find that there is a gap between stakeholder-identified consequences as compared to government report-identified consequences. Also, the resulting consequences were influenced by past natural events that had impacted the island, such as Hurricane María in 2017. By identifying physical and social consequences from the perspective of emergency management stakeholders, this study contributes to the earthquake risk literature by addressing a documented gap in the integration of social impacts into earthquake risk assessment in Puerto Rico. These findings can inform efforts to pre-identify vulnerabilities in the system and support emergency managers in preparedness and mitigation strategies for potential natural hazard events impacting Puerto Rico.