Tracking knowledge and confidence trajectories: A cross-domain longitudinal study in higher education economics and social sciences

Knowledge-related confidence has recently gained increasing attention as a metacognitive factor influencing students’ knowledge acquisition, learning, and performance. However, longitudinal and cross-domain evidence on how confidence develops in relation to domain knowledge remains scare. This study addresses this gap by examining development of economic knowledge and corresponding confidence among students in two major study domains – Economics and Social Sciences – during the final year of their Bachelor programs. A total of 312 students participated at two measurement points after two ( t1 ) and three ( t2 ) years of study. Results show that domain knowledge increased only modestly and exclusively among Economics students, while confidence remained stable across both groups. This pattern suggests that confidence does not necessarily align with knowledge gains and may follow a non-linear developmental trajectory. Furthermore, the correlation between knowledge and confidence was substantially stronger for Economics students, indicating higher calibration levels potentially fostered by the substantially greater exposure to economics content in the Economics curriculum. Cluster analyses revealed three domain knowledge-confidence profiles - low, medium, high – indicating two potential risk groups: one characterized by persistently low knowledge and confidence, and another by moderate knowledge paired with fragile confidence. These findings highlight the importance of measuring knowledge-related confidence in higher education and underscore the need for targeted interventions to support accurate calibration and reduce misconceptions or overconfidence.