CO2LOGIX: A first-order model of pressure-constrained CO2 geological storage growth at the basin scale

Subsurface pressure increases from CO 2 injection can constrain injectivity and operating margins, reducing the dynamic capacity of CO 2 geological storage systems. Engineered pressure management approaches are effective but carry additional cost and risk. Understanding the magnitude, interaction and evolution of these effects at the regional and multi-project scale is limited by computational demands and uncertainty over future deployment trajectories. This presents a limitation for climate-policy-informing frameworks such as Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which typically consider only static capacity in carbon capture and storage technology growth. We present CO2LOGIX, a new model which evaluates the scale of subsurface pressure buildup under different growth trajectories with computational efficiency. The model combines well-established analytical solutions describing pressure diffusion in the subsurface with a flexible logistic growth model, which informs well deployment rates and can be adjusted to reflect realistic development scenarios. We demonstrate the value of CO2LOGIX through a UK case study. In a modelled scenario based on historic industry growth rates, unmitigated pressure reaches upper bounds after 83 years, with ∼ 12 GtCO 2 stored by 2100 – well above national targets of 4–6 GtCO 2 . However, short-term storage rates remain low (5 MtCO 2 /year by 2030 and 30 MtCO 2 /year by 2050), below recommended targets. Faster growth scenarios cause earlier pressure limit breaches, reducing available unmitigated capacity or requiring costly mitigation. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating realistic pressure feedbacks between injection rates and long-term storage capacity into IAMs. CO2LOGIX provides a new first-order framework to anticipate and manage pressure limits in large-scale CO 2 storage deployment.