Levelized cost of hydrogen: A dynamic simulation-based methodology for heavy-duty refuelling stations

Heavy-duty vehicles generate over 25 % of EU road transport greenhouse gas emissions (∼6 % of total emissions). Achieving the 2050 carbon neutrality target requires large-scale deployment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and cost-efficient refuelling infrastructure. This work introduces a novel methodology for assessing the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) in heavy-duty refuelling stations by integrating thermodynamic simulations of station operation with techno-economic cost analysis. The thermodynamic model, HyFill, partially validated, predicts gas temperature in the tank within ±3 °C during refuelling and defueling. Capital cost estimates benchmarked against four vendor quotes achieve ±10 % accuracy. Sensitivity analyses on model parameters and operational scenarios identify the discount rate and station utilization as dominant cost drivers. Additionally, a randomized operational scenario effectively approximates daily station behaviour, enabling robust LCOH evaluation where detailed data are unavailable. This integrated approach provides a more rigorous and practical framework for optimizing heavy-duty hydrogen refuelling station design and investment decisions. • Coupled thermodynamic and techno-economic HRS model evaluates LCOH. • Tank thermodynamic model predicts end-refuelling gas temperature with ±3 °C accuracy. • CAPEX estimation validated against four vendor quotes, estimated precision ±10 %. • Sensitivity analysis identifies discount rate and utilization rate as key LCOH drivers. • Storage and pre-cooling systems increase HRS's CAPEX share and contribution to LCOH.