A techno-economic, carbon intensity, and policy assessment of hydrogen production in the United States

Comparing studies that involve techno-economic analyses (TEA) and life cycle assessments (LCA) for different hydrogen production technologies is challenging due to inconsistent assumptions across studies. Thus, this research develops a harmonized framework to assess seven hydrogen production pathways - water electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, biomass gasification, steam methane reforming, autothermal reforming, partial oxidation, and dry methane reforming, under consistent U.S.-specific techno-economic, carbon intensity (CI), and policy assumptions. Process models developed with Aspen Plus produce mass and energy balances, informing open-source TEA and cradle-to-gate CI estimates. Thermal conversion pathways produce hydrogen at $0.8–$3.9/kg, while electrolysis-based methods range from $4.5–$18.5/kg, contingent on both electrolyzer and the source of electricity used. Several low-carbon emitting pathways meet emerging clean hydrogen standards, but only some achieve cost parity with conventional hydrogen under current U.S. federal and state incentives. This framework enables consistent cross-technology comparison and supports informed decisions on hydrogen sourcing, including applications such as sustainable aviation fuel production or fuel cell electric vehicles.