A dynamic and comparative lifecycle assessment and lifecycle cost analysis of hydrogen passenger vehicle technologies in Europe from 2020 to 2050

Hydrogen-powered vehicles offer a significant potential to complement battery electric vehicles in decarbonising the transport sector. These technologies provide zero tailpipe emissions, and are well-suited for applications where BEVs face limitations, such as long-distance travel and heavy-duty use. However, H2-ICE and FCREx vehicles remain under-explored in terms of their life cycle environmental and economic performance, leaving a critical gap in the literature. This study addresses this gap by conducting a cradle-to-grave Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) analysis for a range of hydrogen-powered vehicles in Europe. The study employs a dynamic modelling approach, considering evolving energy mixes, technological advancements, and policy scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Our analysis reveals that BEVs demonstrate the lowest emissions, especially with increasing grid decarbonisation, despite high production emissions from battery manufacturing. While hydrogen vehicles offer a potential alternative, their environmental impact is strongly tied to hydrogen production methods, transport and distribution infrastructure, and material requirements for vehicle production – in particular, emissions from hydrogen storage tank production and hydrogen fuel transport and distribution. The LCC analysis projects a significant decrease in green hydrogen fuelled vehicle costs by 2050, enhancing their competitiveness with BEVs, particularly in scenarios where there is limited to no home charging available for users or hydrogen infrastructure scales-up quickly. In these cases, hydrogen powertrains provide a cost-effective alternative. Notably, vehicles powered by blue hydrogen, including H2-ICE and FCREx configurations, are already cost-competitive with ICEVs. This underscores the importance of not only infrastructure and end-user behaviour, but also hydrogen fuel production pathways in evaluating the decarbonisation potential of hydrogen vehicles.