Development of straightforward correlations to estimate hydrogen production costs based on wind and PV capacity factors

This work develops straightforward correlations between renewable energy capacity factors and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) across Europe. A detailed simulation model and genetic algorithm optimization were applied to 65 European sites, considering solar PV (9–20 % capacity factor) and onshore wind (15–50 %). Two scenarios were analyzed: flexible hydrogen production following renewable supply and constant hydrogen supply requiring storage. Results show that LCOH depends strongly on capacity factors, with hybrid wind-solar systems yielding the lowest costs due to higher combined utilization. Under optimal conditions, standalone PV and wind achieve LCOHs of 7.2 €/kg and 5.2 €/kg, respectively, while hybrid systems reach 5.1 €/kg. Constant demand significantly increases costs, especially for PV-only systems, due to storage requirements. The established correlations provide a rapid tool for determining LCOH based on regional renewable potential, facilitating early-stage techno-economic assessments of water electrolysis systems in the European energy landscape.