Modeling the impact of environmental conditions on airborne virus spread: implications for public health and climate change

Objectives This study aims to investigate how environmental physical factors, specifically temperature, influence the transmission dynamics of airborne viral pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1. Design/Methods The research employs integrated physical and epidemiological models, such as the Environmental Factor-Based Transmission Rate Model, Wells-Riley infection probability framework, and the SIR model. Simulations were conducted using the MATLAB ODE45 solver to ensure high accuracy over extended periods. Results The simulations reveal a significant temperature-dependent pattern in viral transmission. At low temperatures (around 0°C), viral activity is minimal, resulting in negligible infection peaks. Optimal transmission occurs at moderate temperatures (15°C to 25°C), with maximum stability and increased airborne transmission, peaking around 22.2°C. Conversely, temperatures above 30°C lead to a sharp decline in infection rates, with near-complete inactivation at temperatures exceeding 38.9°C. Conclusions The findings indicate that environmental temperature is a critical factor in modulating viral transmission, with intermediate temperatures facilitating outbreaks and extreme heat serving as a natural disinfectant. The study highlights the need for effective environmental management strategies to mitigate airborne transmission risks and underscores the importance of incorporating environmental parameters into epidemiological models for improved public health interventions.