Uncertainty influence on the deep drawing of a cylindrical cup

Finite element analysis has become a widely used tool in the design and optimization of forming processes. Nevertheless, its use often neglects the uncertainties present in real industrial environments. This work evaluates the importance of integrating these uncertainties into the forming simulations. For that, deep drawing of a cylindrical cup was selected as test case, in order to evaluate the influence of multiple uncertainty factors on the forming results, such as the earing profile, thickness distribution, and punch force evolution. An ANOVA sensitivity analysis was performed based on simulations of the forming process to investigate the impact of the uncertainties. These included geometric and process-related parameters such as, the initial blank thickness, die and punch misalignments, geometric setup deviations, coefficient of friction, and blank holder force. The results highlight how specific factors affect different regions of the formed cup at different stages of the process. In particular, changes in the cup geometry and thickness along the cup are linked to die misalignment and the coefficient of friction, while force evolution is mainly influenced by the initial thickness and the coefficient of friction during early and intermediate punch displacements. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of uncertainty in sheet metal forming processes and support the development of more robust and reliable forming processes.